Our dependency on Internet will only grow and with new countries maturing and entering it can only be exponential. Innovation in technology and unparalleled mobility can only accelerate it. The report estimates upward of 4.7 billion people of which 75% from emerging economies entering the Internet and this can only bring in more forces to contend with.
What kind of a model can be predictive of such an enormous change? The report tries to lay down the scenarios and make recommendations.
The list of recommendations is long and each of it looks undoable given the diversity of nations; national beliefs; priorities....
Here is a summary of the six chapters:
Chapter 1:
Navigating the Future of Cybersecurity Policy
Challenges we will be facing
The Model
The possible scenarios and the outcome
Chapter 2:
A map of the future terrain of cyberspace:
The Cyber 2025 Model
"The Cyber 2025 Model is therefore rooted in an econometric model that builds on historical data of 80 countries from 1990 through 2012 to create 2025 forecasts for key indicators of macroeconomic, socio-demographic, and technology conditions. "
Chaptr 3:
Plateau: a future that’s stable, but stalled
"THE PLATEAU SCENARIO is characterized by asymmetry—a highly uneven approach to governance, technology growth, and the economy. Some governments have protectionist policies and standards that close off stakeholder participation and international cooperation, while others support open trade and liberalize rules for foreign direct investment."
Chapter 4:
Peak: a world that's connected and cooperative
"THE PEAK SCENARIO is characterized by clear, effective government policies and standards across both developed and emerging economies, and strong collaboration between governments to support open trade and promote foreign direct investment. This is a scenario of innovation, in which the actions of governments, businesses, and societal organizations foster the widespread and rapid adoption of technology and ICT fulfills its potential. The political, economic, and social support leads to accelerated economic and technology growth and improved global cybersecurity. "
Chapter 5:
Canyon: a world of deepening isolation
"THE CANYON SCENARIO is characterized by a failure to fulfill the potential of technology to positively transform governments, economies, and societies. In this scenario, economic and technology growth is relatively slow, with limited adoption of ICT and deep failures in cybersecurity. Protectionist economic policies and government resistance to the rapidly changing technological environment inhibit cooperation and isolate countries. Instead of taking advantage of anticipated ICT growth, governments restrict technology trade and control the flow of information. "
Chapter 6:
Recommendations
- Commit to an open, free Internet where privacy is protected
- Advance cybersecurity risk management and coordination
- Harmonize laws and standards that affect cybersecurity
- Promote global free trade
- Invest strategically in infrastructure and research and development
- Enable talent mobility and retention
- Support the education of a modern workforce
- Develop cybersecurity norms for stability and security in cyberspace
