Tuesday, May 18, 2021

The Indian Institute of Science Model: The 6-Dimensional Covid-19 Pandemic Model Predictions

The main resource for this model is here:

https://cmg.cds.iisc.ac.in/covid/


Projections based on this model can be accessed here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-86084-7


Presently other models are being used, namely Compartment and Network Pandemic models. The IISC model is based on a 6-dimensional population balance equation.

The highlight of this model in words of the authors,

"The proposed model predicts the distribution of infected population across the region, the age of the infected people, the day since infection, and the severity of infection, over a period of time. Moreover, the newly developed model incorporates the immunity, pre-medical history, effective treatment, point-to-point movement of infected population (e.g., by air, train etc.), interactivity (community spread), hygiene and the social distancing of the population."

The team that developed the model is detailed here:

Lead: Prof. Shashikumar Ganesan and Prof. Deepak Subramani CDS, IISc Bangalore, India

Email: sashi@iisc.ac.in, deepakns@iisc.ac.in


Here are (Tamil Nadu) predictions for the Pandemic, past, present and future:








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